China’s CO₂ emissions fell 3.1% in the third quarter, CREA estimates
The independent analysis finds the largest quarterly decline since 2022. The estimated fall for the first nine months was 0.5%.
China’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement production fell 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter in 2025, according to an analysis published by Carbon Brief on 6 November. Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), combined official figures and commercial data for the estimate. The study puts the drop at the largest quarterly decline since 2022.
What changed in power generation and transport
Coal-fired generation fell 3.3%. Wind, solar and nuclear together generated 110 TWh more electricity than a year earlier, an increase larger than the rise in overall demand. Total oil use fell 4%, and transport oil use fell 9%. The analysis links the decline to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and greater use of electric vehicles.
Estimated emissions for January to September fell 0.5% from the same nine months in 2025. The study notes that China continues to build coal power plants even as their generation fell in the quarter. The full-year result will depend on energy demand and output from alternative sources.
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