Indonesia: warming intensifies fire-weather conditions, WWA analysis finds
The 12 November analysis separates the effects of climate change and El Niño in Borneo, Sumatra and Java. It examines temperature, rainfall and extreme dry-air conditions.
Human-induced warming made the specific seven-day hot and dry-air conditions examined during Indonesia’s fire season about three times more likely, World Weather Attribution estimates. Published on 12 November, the analysis covers regions in Borneo, Sumatra and Java.
Researchers attribute about 1.6°C of additional August–October seasonal temperature to climate change. El Niño dominates the reduction in rainfall. Climate models do not reproduce the climate-change contribution to reduced rainfall seen in observations, making that particular result more uncertain.
The study assesses weather conditions favourable to fires, rather than the ignition cause of each fire. It also highlights vulnerabilities created by deforestation and peatland drainage. Measures recommended by the authors include peatland restoration and protection, reducing deforestation and strengthening air-quality monitoring.
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