Copernicus: warmest October globally — 2026 forecast above 1.5°C
October’s global average temperature reached 15.35°C. The full-year assessment remains a statistical prediction.
October 2026 was the warmest October globally in the Copernicus dataset. Average near-surface air temperature was 15.35°C, or 0.90°C above the October 1991–2020 average, exceeding the previous record of 0.85°C in 2023.
Relative to the estimated 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, the anomaly was 1.75°C. This is a global monthly average, rather than a temperature rise applying to every location in Greece.
The full-year outlook
A statistical model using ERA5 data through October predicts a 1.56–1.61°C anomaly relative to 1850–1900 for the whole of 2026, with a greater than 99% probability of exceeding 1.5°C. This is a prediction for an unfinished year, rather than a final annual result.
Europe recorded its second-warmest October, while Greece was among the areas with cooler-than-average conditions. Local conditions therefore differed within a globally record-warm month.
Reading the figures
ERA5 combines observations with physical atmospheric models. Anomalies always need a reference period: 0.90°C and 1.75°C compare the same month with different baselines. A monthly or annual threshold alone does not describe the long-term warming addressed by the Paris Agreement.
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