IMF sees 3.1% global growth in 2026 as risks intensify
The forecast improves marginally on AI investment, but the IMF warns about energy, debt, bond markets and a possible sharp market correction.
Update, 13 October 2026, 12:03 — The new forecasts are out
The International Monetary Fund now forecasts 3.1% global real growth in 2026, up from 3.0% in its July forecast. It keeps the 2027 projection at 3.4%, while estimated global growth in 2025 was 3.5%.
The marginal upgrade is driven mainly by strong investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure, which offsets part of the energy shock. The IMF raises its 2026 euro-area forecast to 1.1% from 0.9% in July.
Baseline and adverse scenarios
The forecasts assume, among other things, an average oil price of $96 a barrel in 2026 and $87 in 2027. This is not a forecast for Greek retail fuel prices.
Under an adverse scenario in which oil reaches $130 a barrel through the first quarter of 2027, the IMF estimates global growth would be 0.2 percentage point lower in 2026 and 0.5 point lower in 2027. Inflation in 2027 could rise by 1.1 points to 5.2%. This is a risk scenario, not the baseline forecast.
AI as both support and risk
The IMF says the benefits of AI are increasingly concentrated: 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 countries in April.
The Global Financial Stability Report warns that a sharp reassessment of AI profitability, rising sovereign-bond yields or a major cyberattack could transmit stress to markets and the real economy. In the IMF stress tests, banks representing 22% of global banking assets have weak capital buffers under the hypothetical adverse scenario, up from 18% in the 2025 exercise.
These figures are international forecasts and hypothetical scenarios. They do not constitute a new interest-rate decision, support package or tax change for Greece.
Update, 11 October 2026, 15:03 — What changed
World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters that the institution is in discussions with 30 to 40 countries about possible support in response to energy and price increases.
Banga said there had been limited take-up from the initial $25 billion crisis envelope. Many countries are more interested in restructuring already approved projects. Such reallocations could make another $35 billion available, while the Bank's total potential response capacity could reach as much as $100 billion if the crisis worsens.
Those figures describe potential financing capacity and ongoing discussions. No list of countries, newly approved package or specific disbursement has been announced.
Reuters also reported, citing World Bank estimates, that developing countries owe external creditors about $400 billion in 2026, with roughly one third of that amount consisting of interest. The figure helps explain the narrow fiscal space but does not itself constitute a debt-restructuring decision.
The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group begin in Bangkok on Monday 12 October, with the energy shock, rising public debt and borrowing costs moving to the centre of the debate.
The institutions' official programme confirms that the meetings will run through 18 October 2026. It includes presentations on global growth, financial stability, public finances, artificial intelligence and debt-crisis management.
Energy, fertiliser and interest rates hit at the same time
World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters that high diesel and fertiliser prices, combined with the prospect of a powerful El Niño, were creating overlapping pressures on economies. This is a risk assessment ahead of the meetings, not a new financing decision.
Reuters also reports that accessible commercial oil stocks are declining, leaving the market more vulnerable to further disruptions. The scale and duration of the impact on individual countries will depend on actual prices, imports and national policy measures.
Public debt at its highest level since World War Two
According to IMF figures cited by Reuters, global public debt is at its highest level since World War Two and is projected to exceed 100% of global GDP before 2030.
Advanced economies have the highest debt-to-GDP ratios, but developing countries are more exposed to capital outflows and refinancing at higher interest rates. Interest payments already exceed 10% of public revenue on average in developing economies, according to the report.
What has not been decided
The opening of the meetings does not amount to an agreement on new debt relief, a new lending programme or a change in interest rates. Any decisions will have to emerge from the sessions and be recorded in official communiques or individual agreements.
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