Indonesia: CREA study estimates 3,560 deaths from fire smoke in September
A research estimate for short-term exposure to PM2.5, rather than an individual victim count. Published on 29 October.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimates that forest and land-fire smoke was associated with 3,560 deaths in Indonesia in September 2026. Its analysis, published on 29 October, concerns short-term exposure to PM2.5.
This is a modelled health burden, rather than a count of identified victims. The model combines pollution fields calibrated against ground monitors with population data and mortality-risk functions.
For all pollution sources, it estimates 5,310 deaths, with a 95% confidence interval of 4,610–6,080; 1,750 are attributed to non-fire sources. That interval applies to the overall estimate, not fire smoke alone. The study is not an official warning with a specified validity period.
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